Has data cracked the laws of attraction?

Valentine’s Day, the annual event which seems to do more for ending relationships than it does for keeping them together, is also the day where dating apps spend the most trying to convince you to sign up.

Which got me thinking: does the $4 billion online dating industry work? How do the algorithms behind these apps decide who’s a match, and is there some secret sauce in all that data that we can learn something from? So I went looking.

Mo’ Data Mo’ Problems 🤦

Trying to predict what variables shape our relationships is big business. Dating apps have spent millions developing their own algorithms to pair people up based on their preferences. Academia is interested in this stuff, too.  

Thankfully, the biggest deep dive into these was carried out in 2020, where 43 long-term studies were gathered together in one mega study to find out how good things like demographics, sexual and physical preferences, values, etc. are at predicting whether you’ll get on with someone.

So can data reveal the secrets to who is the right romantic partner for us? No. Machines cannot work out or predict what factors would make people happy in a romantic relationship. But what they found can teach us a lot about what not to look for.

While AI failed at predicting who would be a good match, it was surprisingly good at working out what we desired. Some of the most common traits were:

• Someone tall if a man and short in a woman
• Someone of a desired race (even though most never admit it)
• Someone rich
• Someone in an enforcement profession like lawyer or firefighter if a man or creative if a woman
• Someone with a sexy name (no, seriously, it’s important apparently)
• And someone just like ourselves (people are 11.3 percent more likely to match with someone who shares their initials)

Dating Data Heartbreak 💔

The fascinating, if sometimes disturbing, data from online dating sites tells us that single people predictably are drawn to certain qualities. But should they be drawn to these qualities? If you are like the average single dater—predictably clicking on people with the traits the scientists found are most desired—are you going about dating correctly? Or are you dating all wrong?

Among more than 11,000 long-term couples, research found that the traits listed below, in a mate, were among the least predictive of happiness with that mate.

• Race/ethnicity
• Religious affiliation
• Height
• Occupation
• Physical attractiveness
• Previous marital status
• Sexual tastes
• Similarity to oneself

Wait, what? Yes. The qualities that are most valued in the dating market, according to Big Data from online dating sites, almost perfectly overlaps with the list of traits in a partner that don’t correlate with long-term relationship happiness.

In summary: in the dating market, people compete ferociously for mates with qualities that do not increase one’s chances of romantic happiness.

But we can’t end this here can we? The amazing thing they found in the mega analysis was people who reported general feelings of happiness and contentment in their lives outside their relationships, tended to be happier inside them.

So much so that researchers found the answer to the below three questions was roughly four times more predictive of their relationship happiness than all the traits of their romantic partner combined.

• “Were you satisfied with your life before you met your partner?”
• “Were you free from depression before you met your partner?”
• “Did you have a positive affect before you met your partner?”
  

Happy (late) Valentine’s Day.

Ok, where can I learn more? 📚

• Don't Trust Your Gut: Using Data to Get What You Really Want in Life, by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - The inspiration for this week’s piece, worth a read.
• Alain de Botton: On Love - Bestselling author and School of Life cofounder Alain de Botton explores what it actually means to live happily ever after. The warm and witty philosopher of the everyday talks about how romantic myths and misconceptions shape modern relationships, and examines what it might mean to love, to be loved and to stay in love.
• Love Language Quiz - Love languges are based on the idea we demonstrate love and affection in different ways. This easy quiz can give you an idea of how you might let someone know you like them.